Tom GalvinManaging Director, Senior Portfolio Manager | 2018

Developed Market Equity Positioning

When pursuing investments on a global basis, it is vitally important to consider how countries are organized and run.

POLICIES

As it relates to POLICIES we include eight factors. We have examined the effectiveness a government provides to its country via the World Bank’s Governance Indicators as well as the degree of support an economy receives from its monetary and fiscal authorities. We also look at real GDP growth over a 10-year period, government spending and debt levels as a percentage of GDP, as well as its position in the global economy by examining its current account balance and debt held by foreigners. We have reviewed the data and ranked each country versus this cohort, adding together the relative positioning to arrive at a total unweighted score. Under our approach, a lower score is better.

As illustrated below, the U.S. is a leader in our overall ranking, with a score of 16—ahead of Germany at 17, Japan at 21 and Europe ex-UK at 26. We separate Germany from Europe ex-UK as we believe Germany is the strongest economy within the EU and to provide a relative frame of reference for Japan, which is comparable in size.

See sources at the bottom of the webpage.

When pursuing investments on a global basis, it is vitally important to consider how countries are organized and run. The World Bank has an index based on its worldwide governance indicators, which includes political stability, rule of law, and regulatory quality, among others. In the most recent survey, Germany was ranked the leader—ahead of the U.S. and Japan, and well ahead of its other European counterparts.

We believe the structure of the EU is suboptimal, as it is a confederation of countries as opposed to a true union of states with coordinated fiscal and monetary policy actions at the federal level (such as the U.S.). The member states of the EU are guided by a focus on austerity and are beholden to budget deficit restrictions that inhibit proactive policies to accelerate growth on a country-by-country basis. The EU also has a more restrictive lending environment. Its banking system is much stronger than during the financial crisis, but capital reserve ratios are still being increased to comply with Basel banking guidelines, thereby limiting the availability of capital to flow through to the EU economy.

Germany holds an advantage over the U.S., with a government debt to GDP ratio of 68%, versus 105% in the U.S. Japan’s ratio, at 253%, is exceptionally large, limiting the government’s ability to pursue meaningful pro-growth fiscal policies. Government spending as a percentage of GDP in Europe is 48%. Japan is 39%, close to the U.S. at 38%. While economists differ as to the impacts of government spending on the economy, we concur with recent articles published by the St. Louis Fed indicating that the multiplier impact is less than 1. We believe spending by government generally produces lower return investments compared to commercial enterprises, so economies in Germany and Japan are held back by this government spending.

Given the global nature of economies around the world, we believe it is important to assess a country’s current account balances as a percentage of GDP as well as debt held by foreigners. Germany is very much an export-oriented economy, has a surplus in its current account position and is ranked first, with the U.S. behind both Japan and Europe ex-UK. As a result of all these factors, real GDP growth over the last 10 years has been the strongest in the U.S. among the developed markets. Our collective rankings of the Policy factor show the U.S. is the leader, slightly ahead of Germany, with a large advantage over Europe ex-UK and Japan.

When pursuing investments on a global basis, it is vitally important to consider how countries are organized and run.

Sources and Disclosures

Sources for 4P Data

BCA Research

Bloomberg

Bureau of Labor and Statistics

CEIC Data

CIA World Factbook

Cornell University

FactSet

Global Innovation Index

Goldman Sachs

Heritage Foundation

Insead

International Monetary Fund

Ned Davis Research

OECD

SC Johnson College of Business

St. Louis Federal Reserve

tradingeconomics.com

WIPO

World Bank



Important Disclosures

City National Bank provides investment management services through its wholly owned subsidiary City National Rochdale, LLC, a registered investment advisor.

The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. This presentation is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any of the securities mentioned herein.

Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts, and other forward-looking statements, which do not reflect actual results and are based primarily upon a hypothetical set of assumptions applied to certain historical financial information. Certain information has been provided by third-party sources, and, although believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified, and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.

Any opinions, projections, forecasts, and forward-looking statements presented herein are valid as of the date of this document and are subject to change.

As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met, and investors may lose money. Returns include the reinvestment of interest and dividends. Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal. Diversification may not protect against market loss or risk.

Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

Put our insights to work for you.

If you have a client with more than $1 million in investable assets and want to find out about the benefits of our intelligently personalized portfolio management, speak with an investment consultant near you today.

If you’re a high-net-worth client who’s interested in adding an experienced investment manager to your financial team, learn more about working with us here.